BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - As of the 10 pm update from the National Hurricane Center, there are now three active tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin -- Tropical Storm Fred, Tropical Depression Grace, and Tropical Depression Eight. At this time, no tropical impacts are expected for the Brazos Valley -- however, with high uncertainty in the forecast for the evolution of Grace, that will be the system to monitor through the upcoming week.
Fred was found to be a bit stronger Sunday night with the maximum wind speed increased to 50mph. Tropical-storm-force wind extends 90 miles out from the center of this tropical storm, currently located 200 miles south of Panama City, Florida. Landfall is expected near Panama City late Monday afternoon or early evening, however, impacts are expected to begin overnight and early Monday morning.
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4″ to 8″ of rain is expected along the Florida Panhandle, with localized one-foot totals possible. 3″ to 6″ of rain, with localized 9″ totals, are expected across parts of Southeast Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Storm surge could topple as run as high as 3 to 5 feet.
Grace remains highly unorganized tonight as an elongated area of low pressure at best. While the system may try to strengthen to tropical storm status again overnight, it would weaken again Monday after interacting and moving over the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Due to this highly unorganized structure, the National Hurricane Center noted the following regarding the evolution of Grace:
The forecast for Grace is incredibly challenging. Imminent interactions with the high terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could cause Grace to dissipate as soon as Monday evening. However, a track south of Cuba, as shown by recent runs of the GFS and COAMPS-TC, may allow Grace to maintain its tropical cyclone status and possibly even intensify. The HWRF even shows it becoming a hurricane over the western Caribbean, with the caveat that the model has produced several poor forecasts for Grace thus far. Although it is not explicitly forecast, slight intensification is still possible tonight or tomorrow morning before the center of Grace moves inland. After that time, the NHC forecast assumes Grace will continue as a tropical depression through 72 h. Once/if Grace makes it to the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in 3-4 days, it could have an opportunity to reorganize and intensify, and this is again shown in the official intensity forecast. That said, users are encouraged to not focus on the exact track or intensity forecasts at days 4 and 5.
The forecast track shifted a bit to the south with the 10 pm advisory, however, still generally lies north of the current cluster of tropical forecast models. The next 24 to 48 hours will be telling of what could or could not become with the future of Grace. High pressure over the Southeastern United States is currently forecast to blossom and encompass Southeast Texas this weekend. Assuming what is know tonight, that puts any concerns of impacts from Grace on the low end for the Brazos Valley, at this time.
As of the 10pm Sunday update from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Depression Eight has officially formed 135 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the island. The current forecast is for Tropical Storm Henri to form by Monday.
The Hurricane Center notes that confidence is high through Wednesday that the system should make a slow clockwise turn around Bermuda. After mid-week, there will be some forecast markers to monitor. A stronger system -- possible hurricane -- could drift further west toward the United States Coast. However, most forecast models currently keep this system as a weaker tropical storm, allowing it to be picked up by upper-level winds and steered north the northeast further out into the open waters of the Atlantic.
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August 16, 2021 at 10:49AM
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Fred, Grace, and now Tropical Depression Eight crowd the tropics - KBTX
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