With the cooler mornings we’ve had this week, the question is starting: What is our fall weather looking like? Here’s the latest forecast, and many Michiganders will love the forecast.
The official forecast from NOAA is produced once per month. Right now we are going to look at the current fall forecast. A new fall forecast will be officially issued next week. We are also going to look at the latest computer model run that NOAA uses to produce the new forecast.
Also remember: the season of fall to me, as a meteorologist, is September, October and November.
With the current active forecast, NOAA expects Michigan and the Great Lakes to have a slightly increased probability of warmer than normal temperatures. It’s not a really big potential for warmer than normal temperatures. With the temperatures favoring the easier chance to warmer than normal, it means we also have a lesser chance of colder than normal temperatures.
Temperature forecast for September, October and November 2022. (Forecast from NOAA, issued July 21, 2022)
The map above gives eastern Lower a 40 percent to 50 percent chance that temperature will be warmer than normal. Western Lower and the Upper Peninsula have a 33 percent chance to 40 percent chance of warmer than average temperatures.
Rainfall is not expected to be heavier than normal this fall. NOAA tells me that the current La Niña usually makes the Plains states drier than average in fall. With a large dry area just west of Michigan, it’s often hard to become really wet. Michigan is in the slightly drier than normal forecast area.
Precipitation forecast for September, October and November 2022 (Forecast from NOAA, issued July 21, 2022)
This means the current forecast says Michigan will have a slightly warmer and slightly drier than normal fall.
Now let’s look at the brand-new run of the model most relied on by NOAA to produce the fall forecast. This model is called the NMME, which stands for the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. I’ll break that down for you, and it’s not too hard to understand. Multi-Model means this output takes into account seven different long-range models. Ensemble means that each individual model is run several different ways, and the forecast solutions are averaged.
Here is the temperature forecast, just cranked out by the NMME. The NMME’s newest run says there is an even higher chance of warmer than normal temperatures for this fall. The output predicts we will average one degree Celsius to two degrees Celsius warmer than normal. To put that into Fahrenheit, it means we would be about two to four degrees warmer than normal. That is not record warmth, but warm enough for most to know it’s abnormal.
NMME Model temperature anomaly forecast (in degrees C) for September, October and November 2022.
The NMME also continues the idea of being slightly drier than average.
NMME Model output of precipitation deviation from normal for September, October and November, 2022.
The last thing we need to factor in is the long-term climate trend. The global average temperature is warming. One of the strongest trends is a warming fall pattern across the eastern U.S. and definitely in Michigan and the Great Lakes region.
Right now everything is pointing toward a warmer and drier than normal fall. This can make for some fantastic weather in September and October. It can also mean the first snowfall holds off until late November or even December.
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August 13, 2022 at 12:39AM
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Michigan’s fall forecast calls for a real crowd-pleaser - MLive.com
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