It’s a good thing Republicans hoping to take control of the Senate next year don’t need to pick up more than one seat, because there’s a dearth of takeover options. Indeed, the Senate battleground at this point in the cycle has been smaller only once in the past 22 years.
At the outset of the 2022 midterm elections, eight states are competitive, with each party holding four seats that look initially vulnerable. Democrats are on defense in Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire and Nevada, while Republicans are defending Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida.
Just a few months into the cycle, five Republican senators have announced that they will not seek reelection, but those decisions haven’t altered the color or the shape of the initial Senate battleground. Newly open seats in Missouri and Ohio could develop into Democratic opportunities, but considering President Donald Trump’s wide margins in each state in 2020 and the strong correlation between presidential results and Senate outcomes, Republicans start as favorites to win those races.
According to ratings by The Rothenberg Political Report (and then Inside Elections) in January of the off year, going back to 1999, the initial Senate battleground at the beginning of each cycle averaged 12 seats. The largest recent battlegrounds were in the 2000 (16 seats) and 2002 (17 seats) cycles, with 2008 (seven seats) being the only cycle in which the initial Senate battleground was smaller than this cycle’s eight seats.
There’s been only one other cycle since 2000 where the initial battleground was evenly divided. In 2006, Republicans and Democrats were defending seven vulnerable states each. Democrats eventually gained five seats that cycle, in President George W. Bush’s second midterm.
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April 01, 2021 at 05:01PM
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Senate 2022: Few opportunities as parties battle for control - Roll Call
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