I recently wrote a Twitter thread (5/12/20) about another New York Times graphic feature that was a good idea, strangely executed.
The good idea, which appears on the Times‘ “Coronavirus in the US” page, is to sort states in terms of how well they’re controlling the coronavirus outbreak, using graphs of the daily count of new cases in each state. This seems like a good choice of metric and a useful thing to keep track of, especially given how fragmented the US response has been.
As for the strange execution—well, in the category of “where new cases are increasing,” the Times (as of May 16) includes both Virginia…
…and Louisiana:
Under “where new cases are mostly the same,” the Times includes both Arizona…
…and Montana:
And labeled as “where new cases are decreasing” are both New Hampshire…
…and Vermont:
So in every category, the Times lumps together states that are doing an outstanding job controlling new Covid-19 cases, and other states that show little or no sign of bringing the outbreak under control. Often it’s hard to discern why the Times puts a state in one category rather than another, but the bigger problem is conceptual: If you place a state that is down just slightly from a peak in a more favorable category than one that has brought new cases down to zero, because in the former cases are “decreasing” while in the latter they’re “mostly the same,” then you aren’t helping to hold state governments responsible; you’re actually obscuring which officials have implemented an effective anti-coronavirus strategy.
To demonstrate what seems to me a more useful approach to sorting states’ coronavirus records, I’ve made charts of each state (and selected territories) and graded them according to where they are between a peak of infection and bringing new cases down to zero, and whether the direction of the number of daily new cases is up, down or more or less plateaued.
I’ve used the site 91-DIVOC to make the charts; I used daily new cases averaged over seven days to reduce noise. The charts are laid out in a linear rather than a logarithmic scale, to make changes more apparent; they are scaled to the state’s own peak.
A couple of caveats: These grades do not take into account how high each state’s peak was, either in absolute or per capita terms; factoring that in would certainly change the rankings of some states. And there is some subjectivity involved in sorting this way; any two people might come up with slightly different classifications. I’m confident, though, that this ordering gives a more coherent picture than the New York Times does of which states are having more or less success at stopping the spread of the novel coronavirus.
A
These states and territories have been largely successful at controlling the coronavirus—bringing new cases from their peak down to zero, or close to it. They each have natural advantages: Either relatively low population density or some degree of geographic isolation. But other places with similar advantages did not do nearly so well.
Alaska
Hawaii
Guam
Montana
Vermont
Virgin Islands
B
The states in this group have brought new cases most of the way down from their peak, but have not yet brought them to zero. Both these states had particularly bad outbreaks.
New Jersey
New York
B-
These states have similarly brought new cases well down from their peak, but seem to have plateaued short of bringing them down to zero.
Idaho
Louisiana
Michigan
C
These states are about halfway between their peaks and zero, and their numbers are headed downwards.
Colorado
Kansas
Massachusetts
Missouri
Nebraska
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
C-
These states are also about midway between peak and elimination, but have stopped making downward progress.
Connecticut
Florida
Nevada
Ohio
West Virginia
Washington State
Wyoming
D+
Close to their peak, cases in these states (and one territory) are just beginning to head down.
District of Columbia
Iowa
Indiana
Maryland
Maine
Minnesota
Mississippi
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Oregon
Puerto Rico
Wisconsin
D
This group of states has seen their new cases decline considerably from their peak, but they are now heading back up.
Arkansas
Kentucky
Tennessee
D-
The number of new cases in these states has plateaued near their peak.
Alabama
Delaware
Georgia
Illinois
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Utah
F
These states have shown little sign of controlling their coronavirus outbreaks, with new cases continuing to rise. Unfortunately, they include the most populous and second-most populous states in the union.
Arizona
California
North Carolina
Texas
Virginia
I want to reiterate that these grades reflect only the trajectory of each state’s outbreak, and not the absolute magnitude of their peaks. It does matter that on California’s worst day so far, it had 70 new cases per million, and on New York’s worst day it had 588 per million. But in terms of guiding the national coronavirus outbreak to a successful conclusion—one that does not involve the virus spreading disastrously through the entire population—the direction of each state’s infection rate is critical. We need to learn from the states that have managed to control the coronavirus, and see what lessons can be applied where it is still out of control.
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May 17, 2020 at 08:20AM
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Grading the States' Coronavirus Control - FAIR
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