CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Browns, in normal conditions, would be favored to beat the Texans on Sunday. The way they do it, however, might be impacted by the weather on Sunday and the blueprint could come from the Browns' loss to Las Vegas two weeks ago.
The way the Texans pull an upset on Sunday is Deshaun Watson is superhuman and the game turns into a recreation of the Bengals shootout a few weeks ago. The weather appears to be conspiring against such a scenario and it favors the Browns even more.
The Texans can’t stop the run or run the ball, so the Browns have the ability to control possession, much like the Raiders did against them before the bye week. It doesn’t mean we’re in for another 13-possession game, but head coach Kevin Stefanski understands the importance of possession. The Browns can mix aggression with some good old-fashioned rock-pounding.
The Browns are simply a more efficient team than the Texans. They are 11th in Drive Success Rate, according to Football Outsiders, while the Texans are 23rd. This means they can do more with fewer drives while Houston needs more bites at the apple to put up points.
The weather on Sunday calls for plenty of wind and this time it favors the Browns, who can maximize fewer possessions if they choose.
Controlling the football is one thing to watch on Sunday. Here are three more:
Battle of 2017 draft picks
The 2017 draft will always tie Watson and Myles Garrett together, not just because they’re classmates but because they were so close to being teammates. The Browns took Garrett No. 1 but, when Watson slid to them at No. 12, they traded the pick to the Texans.
Watson has thrown for 449 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in two games against the Browns, both victories. Fresh off a contract extension, Watson is playing some of the best football of his career, and in his last five games he is on fire, passing for 1,584 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions.
His biggest foil in this game will be Garrett, recently enriched by his own contract extension. Garrett, in two games against Watson, has 2.5 sacks and six quarterback hits. He is the rare defensive end athletic enough to keep up with the most athletic quarterbacks.
Watson will hold onto the football looking to make plays downfield and Garrett can take advantage, forcing a turnover or short-circuiting a drive to help separate the Browns from the Texans.
If you really like storylines, Garrett pressuring Watson into an interception by Denzel Ward, one of the players the Browns added as a result of the trade down, would certainly be one.
The rest of the Browns' pass rush
Cleveland Browns defensive end Olivier Vernon sacks Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr in the first half.Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
A couple weeks ago, it was noted in this space how Olivier Vernon had no sacks. He went out against Las Vegas and got two of them.
The reality is the Browns' pass rush, outside of Garrett, simply hasn’t gotten the job done, grading out as the 16th best pass rush by PFF. Football Outsiders ranks them 18th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Browns' 20 sacks rank 14th in the NFL and only Garrett has more than 2.5 on the season.
Garrett has the ability to chase around Watson, but the rest of the Browns' pass-rush unit needs to be able to clean things up when Watson gets away.
Baker Mayfield’s opportunity
Baker Mayfield congratulates wide receiver Jarvis Landry after Landry threw a completed pass against the Cincinnati Bengals. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
The focus this week has rightly been on the potential return of Nick Chubb and the return of Wyatt Teller to boost the rushing attack. There is an opportunity here for Mayfield, however, to re-capture some of his 2018 magic.
The Texans are ranked No. 23 in pass defense DVOA, and this is just the start of a stretch of games in the second half favorable to Mayfield and the passing game. The Eagles are 16th, the Jaguars 32nd and the Titans 24th. Sunday’s weather might not cooperate, but over the next four games, Mayfield should have some opportunities to exploit shaky pass defenses.
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OC Van Pelt on Mayfield: ‘You’ll see different things schematically’ in second half
Will Sunday’s game be a reverse of the Raiders game?
What the Browns' offense was missing without Nick Chubb -- Film Review
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